A study claiming that the sugar tax led to a 10% reduction in sugar consumption has been withdrawn
A UK study on the impact of the sugar tax has been withdrawn. The study initially claimed that the sugar tax had reduced sugar intake in soft drinks by 10%, but this was later found to be a mistake. The new estimate is that sugar intake has been reduced by 2.7%, which is only a quarter of the original level.
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A study published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ Open) in March 2021 claimed that a sugar tax in the UK led to a 10% reduction in sugar consumption in soft drinks. The journal's editors announced the decision to retract the paper last week.
The study was conducted by a team of researchers at Imperial College London based on data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS). The researchers found that following the introduction of the sugar tax in 2018, each household consumed an average of 30 grams less sugar per week from soft drinks. This represents a 10% reduction in sugar consumption.
However, the researchers now admit that there was an error in the study's methodology. A weighting variable in the analysis was miscalculated, leading to an overestimation of the decline in sugar consumption. The revised estimate of the drop is now 8 grams per household per week, just 2.7% of the initial figure.
The sugar tax is a government measure introduced to reduce obesity and tooth decay. Some have criticized the sugar tax for being too small a levy, and the withdrawal of the study is likely to only increase the criticism.
The retraction of the study is also embarrassing for the researchers who conducted it. They received £1.6 million in funding from the taxpayer to assess the sugar tax, and the withdrawal of the study puts their ability to do so into further question.
The withdrawal of the study has not been widely reported in the media. The only news outlet to report on it so far has been the niche website Retraction Watch, suggesting a lack of interest in the study in the mainstream media.
The sugar tax is a major policy initiative and the withdrawal of the study is a significant development. It is important that the media and the public are made aware of this development and it is disappointing that the retraction did not receive wider coverage.
The retraction is a reminder that scientific research can be flawed and that it is important to be critical of its findings. It is also a reminder that policymakers should not rely on a single study to make decisions.
